We used ESPN’s Sports Analytics Team’s Hall of Fame projection model to estimate the chances that each of Brady’s three eras would be worthy of enshrinement on its own.
The model was trained using the statistical records of other eligible quarterbacks in the modern era and whether or not they have been selected to the Hall. The stats chosen are those that we found to be most predictive in terms of selection, which include: years of tenure, total wins, total yards, yards per attempt, number of All-Pro selections, number of Pro Bowl selections, number of Super Bowl appearances and wins, and number of Super Bowl MVP awards. Passing statistics and total wins were adjusted for era.
The model has correctly predicted 23 of the 24 modern era QB enshrinees, with only Ken Stabler as the incorrect prediction.