NFL Week 11 betting nuggets

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers put their nine-game cover streak on the line this week in Minnesota. The Packers hope to be the third team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to cover ten straight games, joining the 1992 San Diego Chargers and the 1985 New England Patriots.

The Packers are 9-1 ATS on the season, a half-game ahead of the Dallas Cowboys for the best ATS record in the NFL. Dallas looks to improve to 3-0 ATS as an underdog as it visits Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes has never been less than a three-point favorite at home in his career.

The Cowboys hope to continue the trend of underdogs dominating this season. Underdogs are 28-12-1 ATS over the past three weeks, and have cashed at nearly a 58 percent rate this season.


Week 10 Recap

Underdogs: 8-5 ATS (5-7-1 SU), 85-62-1 ATS this season (59-88-1 SU)

Road teams: 8-6 ATS (5-8-1 SU); 85-64-1 ATS this season (75-74-1 SU)

Unders: 9-5 (82-66-2 this season)

Season Recap

Best teams ATS: Green Bay (9-1), Dallas (8-1), Arizona (7-3), Tennessee (7-3)

Worst teams ATS: Washington (2-7), New York Jets (2-7), San Francisco (2-6), Kansas City (3-7)

Teams favored in every game: Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams to be underdog in every game: Houston, New York Jets, Detroit


New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5), Sunday, 1 ET

  • New Orleans is 4-0 ATS and 3-1 outright as an underdog this season. New Orleans is 9-1 ATS and 8-2 outright in its last 10 games as an underdog. Overall, New Orleans is 43-22-1 ATS as an underdog (31-35 outright) under Sean Payton.

  • New Orleans is 3-0 ATS this season in games which follow a straight-up loss.

  • New Orleans is 8-1 ATS since the start of the 2018 season as a road underdog, tied for the second-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

  • New Orleans is 32-13 ATS on the road over the past six seasons, the best road cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

  • Philadelphia is 4-12 ATS as a home favorite since the start of the 2018 season, the third-worst cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills (-7), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Teams coming off an ATS loss are 44-23 ATS against teams coming off an ATS win this season. Indianapolis is coming off an ATS loss, while Buffalo is coming off a win.

  • Indianapolis has covered each of its past three games as a road underdog.

  • Josh Allen is 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite of seven or more in his career.

  • Buffalo is a single-digit favorite for the first time since Week 6 (were at least 13-point favorites each of previous three games).

Baltimore Ravens (-6) at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Baltimore is 1-6 ATS as a favorite this season and 0-3 ATS as a road favorite.

  • Baltimore is 0-3 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • Chicago has failed to cover in each of its past seven games following a bye week.

  • Chicago has failed to cover in each of its past three games as a home underdog.

  • Back-to-back Justin Fields starts have gone over the total after his first five career starts all went under.

  • Lamar Jackson is 12-0 outright in his career against NFC teams (5-6-1 ATS including 0-2 ATS this season).

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (-10), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Teams coming off an ATS loss are 44-23 ATS against teams coming off an ATS win this season. Cleveland is coming off an ATS loss, while Detroit is coming off an ATS win.

  • Detroit is one of three teams to be an underdog in every game (Houston, New York).

  • Despite Detroit’s winless record, it is 5-4 ATS this season and 5-1 ATS when getting at least four points.

  • Cleveland is a double-digit favorite for the second time this season. It’s the first time Cleveland has been a double-digit favorite twice in a season since 1994.

  • Six of the past seven Detroit games have gone under the total.

  • After failing to cover in each of its first two road games, Detroit has now covered three straight games on the road.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-10.5), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Houston has failed to cover in each of its past three games following a bye week.

  • Houston has failed to cover each of its last four games.

  • Tennessee has covered five of its past six games.

  • Tennessee is 3-0 ATS against AFC South opponents this season.

  • Tennessee has only been a double-digit favorite three times in the last decade (last: -10 at Houston in 2019).

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Green Bay is 9-1 ATS this season with nine straight covers. It’s the longest cover streak Green Bay has had in the Super Bowl era, and it is tied for the third-longest single-season streak in the Super Bowl era.

  • Green Bay is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • All four of Minnesota’s home games have gone under the total this season.

  • Minnesota is 4-1 ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Minnesota has played eight one-score games, most in the NFL, including three overtime games and four games decided by three points or fewer.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at New York Jets, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Teams coming off an ATS loss are 44-23 ATS against teams coming off an ATS win this season. New York is coming off an ATS loss, while Miami is coming off a win.

  • New York is 2-7 ATS overall, tied for the worst mark in the NFL. New York is 1-4 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season, and 1-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or fewer.

  • New York has gone over the total in five straight games after going under in the first three games.

  • New York is one of three teams to be an underdog in every game (Detroit, Houston).

  • Miami has covered six consecutive games against the Jets. Both meetings last season went under the total (New York scored a combined three points).

  • New York was 2-2 ATS and 0-4 outright in Joe Flacco starts last season.

  • Since the start of the 2017 season, Miami is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.

Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers (-3), Sunday, 1 ET

  • Taylor Heinicke is 3-7 ATS in his career including the playoffs. Two of those three covers have come against Tampa Bay.

  • Washington is 2-7 ATS overall, tied for the worst mark in the NFL.

  • Washington has gone under in four consecutive games.

  • Carolina is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite under Matt Rhule.

  • Since 2018, Cam Newton is 8-9 outright and 6-11 ATS as a favorite. He lost each of his final six games outright as a favorite with Carolina, and he failed to cover his last seven games as a favorite with Carolina.

San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 ET

  • Kyle Shanahan is 3-9 outright in his last 12 games as a favorite (2-10 ATS). This year, San Francisco is 3-4 outright as a favorite (2-5 ATS). Overall, Shanahan is 17-15 outright as a favorite with San Francisco (9-21-2 ATS). He is 2-11-1 ATS when laying at least six points.

  • San Francisco has failed to cover in five of its past seven games.

  • San Francisco is 3-6 ATS this season, the fourth-worst cover percentage in the NFL.

  • The under is 7-2 in Jacksonville games this season.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 4:05 ET

  • Cincinnati has failed to win or cover its last five games which follow a bye week (0-2 under Zac Taylor).

  • Cincinnati is 1-2 outright and ATS as a road favorite under Zac Taylor.

  • Overs are 11-2 at Allegiant Stadium since it opened last season. Four of Las Vegas’ five home games have gone over the total this season.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5), Sunday, 4:25 ET

  • Kansas City is 1-6 ATS this season against teams currently with winning records and 3-7 ATS overall.

  • Kansas City is 2-2 ATS against NFC opponents this season, 1-5 ATS against the AFC.

  • Kansas City is 0-5 ATS at home this season.

  • Dallas is 8-1 ATS this season, the second-best cover percentage in the NFL behind Green Bay (9-1).

  • Dallas is 4-0 ATS on the road this season and 3-0 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • Dak Prescott is 15-8-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (2-0 ATS this season).

  • Patrick Mahomes has never been less than a three-point favorite in a home game in his career.

  • Kansas City looks to cover back-to-back games for the first time since covering three straight in Weeks 6-8. Since then, Kansas City is 5-16 ATS including the playoffs, including 0-4 ATS after covering the previous game.

Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 ET

  • Seattle is 15-7 ATS as a home underdog under Pet Carroll.

  • Russell Wilson is 6-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career.

  • The under is 12-2 in Russell Wilson’s last 14 starts.

  • Arizona has covered five of the last six meetings in Seattle. Arizona has not been favored in Seattle since 2011, the year before Seattle drafted Russell Wilson.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers (-4), Sunday, 8:20 ET

  • All three of Pittsburgh’s road games have gone under the total this season.

  • Pittsburgh is 15-4-1 ATS as an underdog over the past four seasons, the third-best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.

  • Justin Herbert is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of at least four points in his career.

  • Pittsburgh is 3-1 outright and ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Over the last five seasons, Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS as a road underdog (9-3 ATS with Ben Roethlisberger and 2-1 ATS with Mason Rudolph).

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-11.5), Monday, 8 ET on ESPN

  • Home teams are 6-2 ATS on Monday Night Football this season, and underdogs have covered four straight.

  • New York is 19-5 ATS as a road underdog over the past four seasons. That’s four more covers in that situation than any other team in the NFL over that span. Daniel Jones is 12-5 ATS as a road underdog in his career.

  • New York has covered three straight games.

  • Tampa Bay has covered each of its past three home games.

  • Tom Brady is 15-7 ATS over the past five seasons as a double-digit favorite.

  • Tom Brady is 2-6 ATS in his career against New York, his worst record against any opponent. Last season, Tampa Bay won by two as a 12.5-point road favorite against New York.

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